Rates and causes of recent global sea-level rise inferred from long tide gauge data records |
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| Institution: | 1. Estonian Marine Institute of Tartu University, Mäealuse 14, 12618 Tallinn, Estonia;2. National Institute for Health and Welfare, Neulaniementie 4, FI-70701 Kuopio, Finland;3. Estonian Environmental Research Centre, Marja 4d, 10617 Tallinn, Estonia;4. Ministries of Rural Affairs of the Republic of Estonia, Lai 39/Lai 41, 15056 Tallinn, Estonia;1. Department of Chemistry and Molecular Biology, Marine Chemistry, University of Gothenburg, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden;2. Christian Michelsen Research AS, P.O. Box 6031, NO-5892 Bergen, Norway;3. Aanderaa Data Instruments AS, Sanddalsringen 5b, P.O. Box 103, Midtun, NO-5828 Bergen, Norway;1. Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 15A, 12618 Tallinn, Estonia;2. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, 36 Nakhimovsky Prospect, 117851 Moscow, Russia;1. Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), PO Box 2, FI-00791 Helsinki, Finland;2. Estonian Environmental Research Centre, Marja 4 D, 10617 Tallinn, Estonia |
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| Abstract: | Tide gauge data at seven sites of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), with information for relative sea-level during the past 140–200 yr, were analyzed to examine the rates and causes of the global sea-level rise (GSLR) during the twentieth century. By subtracting linear trends for relative sea-level rise during the past 100 yr from the observed data, we get the apparent GSLRs of ～1 mm yr?1 for five sites around the Baltic Sea and Brest. The rate for San Francisco is significantly larger than this, with an optimum value ～2 mm yr?1. The spatial difference of ～1 mm yr?1 between these sites is reasonably explained by the recent melting of the Greenland ice sheet with an equivalent sea-level rise of ～1 mm yr?1. The predicted relative sea-level change for this melting scenario is 0.5 mm yr?1 at sites around the Baltic Sea and Brest, and 1.5 mm yr?1 for San Francisco. The residuals between observations and predictions, ～0.5 mm yr?1 at all sites, may be contributed by thermal expansion of seawater and/or other melting sources. These results suggest the rate of twentieth-century GSLR to be 1.5 mm yr?1. |
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