陕西省能源消费结构、产业结构演变对碳排放强度的冲击影响分析

基于陕西省1989-2011年能源消费等统计数据,分析能源消费结构、产业结构的演变特征,建立陕西省能源消费结构-产业结构-碳排放强度系统的VAR模型,对该系统的长期和短期动态关系进行实证分析。结果表明:陕西省的发展模式,是能源消费结构长期以高碳能源为主和产业结构长期以高碳产业为主导。能源消费结构与产业结构的变化对陕西省碳排放强度的减小作用初期微弱;从中长期来,两个结构多元化提高的负效应对碳排放强度的增加有长期持久的抑制作用,且能源消费结构演进对碳排放强度的冲击效果始终大于产业结构变化的冲击效果。优化产业结构和调整能源消费结构尤其是提高低碳产业与低碳能源比重是驱动陕西省碳排放强度下降的有效措施。

Mechanism of carbon emissions intensity response to industrial evolvement and energy consumption structure change in Shaanxi Province

With the economic development of the human society, growth of population, researching mechanism of the effects the energy consumption and economic growth on carbon emissions intensity has become the focus on low carbon economy. Reducing carbon intensity is the inevitably request to realize low carbon economy development, while analyzing its influencing factors can be targeted to develop low carbon economy. Based on the data of energy consumption and GDP during 1989-2011, this paper has computed respectively the data of energy consumption structure and industrial structure diversification coefficients. VAR model is commonly used to predict the system with relevant time series and quantitative analyze dynamic impacts of stochastic disturbance on variable system. On the basis of reviews of studies at home and abroad, by analyzing the characteristics of industrial structure, energy consumption structure and carbon emissions intensity of Shaanxi Province, establishes an innovative VAR model and uses impulse responses function and variance decomposition methods to quantitatively reveal the mechanism of carbon emissions intensity response to industrial structure restructuring and energy consumption structure change. The results show as follows:(1)Economy in Shaanxi Province is in the development mode that heavy carbon emissions energy has a large proportion energy consumption structure and heavy carbon emissions industry is as the leading in industrial structure for a long time.(2)The effects changes of energy consumption structure and industrial structure in Shaanxi Province on carbon emissions intensity are relatively weak in the early times.(3)From a long-term perspective, the negative effects the improvement of two structures diversification on the increase of carbon emissions intensity has a long lasting inhibitory action. And the influence of the evolution of energy consumption structure is greater than industrial structure change.(4)To adjust of the energy consumption structure and optimize the industrial structure especially improve the proportions of the low carbon emissions industry and low carbon emissions energy is the key to improve carbon emissions intensity and carry out energy saving policies. At the end, this paper has proposed some innovative and targeted suggestions, such as accelerating the evolution of the energy structure, adjusting the industrial structure, developing new energy etc.