哈萨克斯坦能源效率变动及其影响因素实证分析

基于哈萨克斯坦1992-2013年能源相关数据,分析该国近年来能源利用效率变动的基本情况,并与我国做出了比较;借助模型工具,选取技术进步、产业结构、能源价格、能源消费结构四因素探讨其对能源效率的影响,在此基础上利用脉冲响应和方差分解模型进一步从动态视角审视能源效率与影响因素之间的变动关系。研究表明:(1) 1992-2013年哈萨克斯坦能源效率呈现逐渐上升的趋势,2013年达到0.597 t标准煤·(10⁴元)^-1,高于2013年我国的能源效率水平0.701 t标准煤·(10⁴元)^-1,且两国都处于能源效率低水平的国家行列。(2)从长期来看,哈萨克斯坦能源消费结构、产业结构、能源价格每降低1%,能源效率则会分别提高3.17%、1.85%、1.26%,能源消费结构对能源效率影响最大,而技术进步每提高1%,则能源效率将提高0.25%。(3)哈萨克斯坦能源消费结构与技术进步对能源效率的冲击效应呈倒U型分布,分别是缘于边际递减效应与技术自身滞后性及回弹效应,且方差分解表明能源价格对能源效率贡献最大。哈萨克斯坦能源效率变动趋势与我国有类似规律,说明在能源价格改革和能源结构调整领域内,我国与哈萨克斯坦有共同的难题,有进一步合作的需要,这些结论为我国与哈萨克斯坦国家能源合作领域开辟新空间,为今后丝绸之路经济带沿线国家能源领域合作提供研究基础。

Empirical analysis of relationship of energy efficiency and its influential factor in Kazakhstan

Energy efficiency issues have been a research focusing on the energy related fields. For most of Asia, energy consumption, efficiency and energy security have been raised to the national strategy and the top-level design for region and cross-region. Kazakhstan is adjacent to the China, and has common energy structure as China; the joint efforts in energy cooperation and emissions reduction hand in hand will be beneficial for the long-term development of the two countries. With the application of sample date in Kazakhstan from 1992-2013 collected from the World Bank, International Energy Agency, and Statistical Review of World Energy, the basic changes of energy utilization efficiency of Kazakhstan in recent years are analyzed and the comparison of that with China is made in the paper. Applying the models, four factors including technology progress, industrial structures, energy prices and energy consumption structures are selected to explore the effects on the energy efficiency, and the dynamic relation between the effects and the energy efficiency applying the impulse response and the variance decomposition model are obtained. The results show that the energy consumption of Kazakhstan has remarkable effects on the energy efficiency, however, the relation between industrial structure and energy prices, and energy efficiency are negative. The energy prices contribute the most to the energy efficiency, which is similar to the dynamic trend of China. Analyzing the common difficulties of China and Kazakhstan in the fields of the energy price reform and the adjustment of energy structure is accelerating the cooperation between China and Kazakhstan. In conclusion, the theories provide a research foundation for the with the model of tool, selecting technology progress, industrial structure, energy prices and energy consumption structure to discuss their influences on energy efficiency, on the basis of above to use of impulse response and variance decomposition model further analysis of the dynamic relationship between energy efficiency and its influence factors. Result shows in the long run, the energy consumption structure is a main role on energy efficiency in Kazakhstan; however, the industrial structure and energy prices have significant negative effect on energy efficiency. The largest contribution to the energy efficiency is energy prices. It has the similar rule to the change trend of energy efficiency in China. China and Kazakhstan have a common problem in the field of the energy price reform and the adjustment of energy structure; there have a need of further cooperation. These results open up a new space for the energy cooperation between China and Kazakhstan, providing a research foundation for the future of the country cooperation in energy field along the Silk Road Economic Belt. The innovation of the paper is considering the background of the Silk Road Economic Belt construction, and providing a reference for China and Kazakhstan to broaden the energy cooperation to the field of energy saving and emission reduction.