Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part I: theory

The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun – either now or in the past, the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately connected to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concepts pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.This essay has been the basis of two earlier papers, one presented at The 8th International Conference of the European Union of Geosciences in Strasbourg, France, 9–13 April 1995; and the other at The 5th International Conference on Precipitation in Elounda, Crete, Greece, 14–16 June 1995.