On Chinese earthquake history — An attempt to model an incomplete data set by point process analysis

Since the 1950s, the Academia Sinica in Peking, People's Republic of China, has carried out extensive research on the Chinese earthquake history. With a historical record dating back some 3000 years, a wealth of information on Chinese earthquakes exists. Despite this monumental undertaking by the Academia Sinica, much work is still necessary to correct the existing earthquake data for historical changes in population, customs, modes of communication, and dynasties. In this paper we report on the status of our investigation of Chinese earthquake history and present some preliminary results. By applying point process analysis of earthquakes in Central China, we found suggestions of (1) lower earthquake activity at intervals of about 175 years and 375 years, and (2) higher earthquake activity at an interval of about 300 years.