Numerical investigation of the effects of upwelling on harmful algal blooms off the west Florida coast

The initiation of the toxic harmful algal bloom (HAB), Karenia brevis, along the west Florida coast has been associated with upwelling events. Upwelling processes may be responsible for the transport of nutrients or algae from deep offshore locations across the Florida shelf to the coast. The influence of coastal wind-driven upwelling on the onset and occurrences of K. brevis in this region was numerically investigated using Rutgers University's Regional Ocean Modeling System. Computations were carried out in an idealized model domain, a two-dimensional slice in the cross-shore and vertical directions. The surface forcing data used was from several offshore meteorological buoys. The motion of the algae was simulated using Lagrangian particles and a passive tracer. The numerical simulations of three K. brevis events in 2000–2002 showed that the particles respond (with upwelling/downwelling) to the along-shore wind stresses as expected and some upwelling was present during the events. Comparison of the passive tracer fields with measured fluorescence data exposed the model's sensitivity to the particular surface forcing data employed and the relatively more significant role played by surface forcing over initial conditions. The present model set-up constitutes a useful predictive tool for conditions conducive to the onset of HABs. It is planned to be used in a real-time mode to aid the NOAA HAB monitoring and forecasting system.