Scenario-Based Seismic Risk Analysis: An Engineering Approach to the Development of Source and Site-Specific Ground Motion Time Histories in Areas of Low Seismicity

Modern engineering design methods require ground motion time histories as input for non-linear dynamic structural analysis. Non-linear dynamic methods of analysis are increasingly applied in the context of probabilistic risk assessments and for cost-effective design of critical infrastructures. In current engineering practice artificial time histories matching deterministic design spectra or probabilistic uniform hazard spectra are most frequently used for engineering analysis. The intermediate step of generation of response spectra can lead to a biased estimate of the potential damage from earthquakes because of insufficient consideration of the true energy content and strong motion duration of earthquakes. Thus, assessment of seismic risk may seem unrealistic. An engineering approach to the development of three-component ground motion time histories has been established which enables consideration of the typical characteristics of seismic sources, regional ground motion attenuation, and the main geotechnical characteristics of the target site. Therefore, the approach is suitable for use in scenario-based risk analysis a larger number of time histories are required for representation of the seismic hazard. Near-field effects are implemented in the stochastic source model using engineering approximations. The approach is suggested for use in areas of low seismicity where ground motion records of larger earthquakes are not available. Uncertainty analysis indicates that ground motions generated by individual earthquakes are well constrained and that the usual lognormal model is not the best choice for predicting the upper tail of the distribution of the ground motions.