基于Mann—Kendall检验的生态足迹时间序列趋势性分析

生态足迹作为一种可持续发展的定量评价指标得到了广泛的应用，但由于其静态性等特点，使得计算结果不能很好地反映发展的动态变化。本文引入Mann-Kendall检验对生态足迹时间序列进行趋势性分析，以江苏省阜宁县生态经济系统为例进行检验，并将结果同线性回归检验结果进行比较，结果表明：江苏省阜宁县的人均生态足迹、人均生态赤字都具有显著上升趋势，人均生态承载力虽也有上升趋势，但不如前几项明显。万元GDP生态赤字虽有下降趋势，但其趋势并不显著。线性回归检的结果与Mann-Kendall检验相同，表明Mann—Kendall检验可以很好地得出生态足迹时间序列的趋势性以及趋势性大小（斜率）。

TREND ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES OF ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT BASED ON MANN-KENDALL TEST

As one of quantitative evaluations of sustainable development, ecological footprint has obtained the widespread application; however, because of its characteristic of static state, the computed result disables to fully reflect the dynamic change of the development. The paper introduces the Mann-Kendall test to analyze the tendency to time series of ecological footprint. As an example, the ecological economic system of Funing County, Jiangsu Province was calculated, and the calculated results were compared with that of the linear regression. The results indicate that Funing County＇s ecological footprint per capita, the ecological deficit per capita both have the remarkable trend of escalation, the ecological biocapacity per capita although also has the trend of escalation, but is inferior to first several kinds. Although the ecological deficit per ten thousand Yuan GDP has the drop tendency, its tendency is not certainly remarkable. The linear regression examinations show the same results with Mann-Kendall test, which demonstrates that the Mann-Kendall test may obtain the tendency as well as the size of time series of the ecological footprint.