北京市泥石流灾害临界雨量研究

降雨是泥石流灾害的主要诱发因素。文章根据北京市历史上泥石流灾害发生时的前期雨量与当日激发雨量,建立了临界雨量判别模型。通过对北京地区泥石流灾害与降雨频率的分析,计算了不同时段的临界雨量;经验证明,计算结果是可信的。基于灾害与降雨频率分析来确定北京地区泥石流发生的临界雨量是一种新的尝试。该方法可用于计算不同泥石流沟道发生泥石流的临界雨量。

Research on critical rainfall of debris flows in Beijing

Precipitation is the main factor of begetting the debris flow,and the mostly used method of computing the critical rainfall in debris flow is the discriminance of critical precipitation,which is based on the statistical data.Based on the data of rainfall in Beijing,the model of computing the critical rainfall for debris flow was established.The frequency of precipitation and debris flow was also analyzed in this paper,and the critical rainfall for debris flow of different periods of time(the maximum 10 minutes,the maximum 30 minutes,the maximum 60 minutes,the maximum 360 minutes,the maximum 24 hours and the maximum 3 days) were computed.Computing the critical rainfall through this way is a new method,which can be used in computing the critical precipitation of different channels in Beijing.