基于多智能体的城市人口分布模型

人口是城市发展中最为活跃的因素,快速增长的人口给城市安全、经济和生态环境带来了深远的影响,获取不同尺度的高精度人口空间分布信息对于城市安全管理、提高资源环境的综合管理能力具有非常重要的意义。针对常用的城市人口空间分布模拟方法存在的不足,构建了基于多智能体的城市人口分布模型,模型由影响要素、智能体、决策规则等组成。在两个不同尺度区域进行了模型应用实验,并以重力模型进行了对比分析。实验结果表明,与重力模型相比,此模型所模拟的结果具有更高的精度,且接近于实际的人口空间分布,为城市人口分布模拟提供了新的思路。

Agent-based Urban Population Distribution Model

The acquisition of detailed population distribution has become an important research topic in the fields of geography and its relative disciplines.Urban population distribution is of significance in the correlation analysis among economies,environment protection,resources utilization and urban planning.In recent years,grid transformation of population data based on GIS and RS technologies has become the focus of population spatial distribution.Many transformation models(digital population model,kernel estimate model,gravity model,etc.) and high resolution RS images(ETM image,land use data and aerophotogrammetry image,etc.) are used.The existing researches mainly use the top-down models.The applications of them are limited since there are too many parameters to determine or too complex to execute.Urban population distribution is a typical bottom-up macroscopic phenomenon caused by individual migration at the microscopic level.Multi-agent technology provides a new solution for such problems.It has been widely used in the field of land-use simulation,land-use planning and residential segregation.This article analyzes the importance of spatial distribution of urban population data.To overcome the disadvantages of traditional methods,a framework based on multi-agent system and GIS is proposed to model the spatial distribution of urban population data.This framework consists of external environment controller,housing infrastructure,multi-agent and rule.Impact factors,such as traffic accessibility,education,environment and living facility have been chosen and quantified by GIS.In the framework,each agent represents a family.Within the consideration of economic conditions and school-age children,agents are divided into six categories.The impact factor weights in each category are determined by AHP.Residential land has been rasterized into regular residential cell in initial condition;each residential cell has the same amount of agents.Whether an agent migrates or not depends on the residential pressure,and the probability of leaving its current location increases monotonically with the residential pressure.Under the residential pressure of socio-economy,every agent decides whether to leave the residential location or not.If an agent decides to leave,it must select the optimal location to migrate according to the constraints such as incomes and perception of the environment.If the target location has been full of agents,the migrating agent must consult with every agent living in the target location.Exponential function is introduced to represent the probability of successful consultation,which depends on the utilities in target location of two consulting agents.The population distribution is formed by means of decision-making,consulting and migration of agents.The proposed model is applied to simulating the population distribution of two districts in Guangzhou,Guangdong Province,China.Compared with the gravity model,the model proposed in this article achieves higher accuracy and is closer to the actual distribution pattern.In a conclusion,the simulation model based on multi-agent technology can provide a new method of modeling urban population distribution.