中国三大城市群服务业规模结构及演化特征

选择京津冀都市区、长三角城市群及珠三角城市群地区地级及以上城市2000-2010 年服务业增加值数据, 运用位序-规模法则和分形理论, 分析并阐释了区域内服务业规模结构的演化特征。结果表明:①以服务业增加值数据构建的京津冀都市区服务业规模分布符合位序-规模法则, 判定系数显示拟合效果较好;②根据分维值比较发现, 长三角城市群服务业规模结构接近理想状态并且比较稳定, 首位城市上海在区域服务业发展中发挥良好的辐射作用。珠三角城市群、京津冀都市区服务业规模结构体系并不均衡, 由于高位序城市服务业的规模效应和惯性优势, 目前的结构现状短期内难以改观;③北京和上海分别作为服务业的区域中心性城市的理论地位与实际较为接近, 并且北京显示出明显的集聚作用, 而广州的区域服务业中心性地位面临弱化的威胁。

Services Size Structure and Evolution of Three Major Urban Systems

The paper examines size structure and evolution characteristics of regional services,based on the value-added data in service industry during 2000-2010 of prefecture-level cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region,Pearl River Delta megalopolises and Yangtze River Delta megalopolises under rank-size rule and fractal theory.The results are shown as follows.(1) Distribution of services size based on the value-added data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region is in line with the rank-size distribution and the coefficient of determination shows a good fit result.(2) According to the fractal dimension,the services size structure of the Yangtze River Delta cities is close to the optimal status and relatively stable.The primate city,Shanghai shows a good radiation effect in the development of regional service industry.Services structure of the Pearl River Delta megalopolises and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region is unbalanced and it is unlikely to change the fact in short term due to size effect and inertia of primate and significant cities.(3) Guangzhou’s position as a regional service center tends to be weakened.Beijing and Shanghai,respectively,the theoretical position of the regional service center matches the actual position with no trend to be weakened.Meanwhile,Beijing shows its strong concentration effect.