| 利用WOFOST作物模型研究气候变暖对冬小麦产量的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘晋联,郝玲英,渠一枫,吴雨生,景淑珍,郭继奋,郭建茂,郝俊平. 利用WOFOST作物模型研究气候变暖对冬小麦产量的影响[J]. 山西气象, 2010, 0(1): 25-28 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘晋联 郝玲英 渠一枫 吴雨生 景淑珍 郭继奋 郭建茂 郝俊平 |
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| 作者单位： | 刘晋联,Liu Jinlian(山西省榆社县气象局,山西,榆社,031800);郝玲英,Hao Lingying(山西省祁县气象局,山西,祁县,030700);渠一枫,Qu Yifeng(山西省太谷县气象局,山西,太谷,030800);吴雨生,景淑珍,郭继奋,Wu Yusheng,Jing Shuzhen,Guo Jifeng(山西省晋中市气象局,山西,晋中,030600);郭建茂,Guo Jianmao(南京信息工程大学,南京,210044);郝俊平,Hao Junping(山西省太谷县气象局,山西,太谷030800) |
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| 摘 要： | 全球气候变暖已经成为一个不争的事实，开展气候变化对冬小麦产量影响的数值模拟对制定农业政策以适应气候变化具有重要意义。本文使用荷兰瓦赫宁根大学开发的WOFOST模型，利用太谷2000年和2001年的数据对WOFOST模型进行验证，确定该模型在山西太谷地区的适用性。文章分析了太谷地区气温变化趋势，假定以1985年-2007年的变暖趋势增温，假设其它条件不变，从而构建了100年内每10a的时间间隔的气象情形。以这些气象情形驱动验证好的模型模拟100年内每10a的时间间隔气候变暖对冬小麦产量的影响。模拟结果表明，气温变化对冬小麦产量的影响不是单一的，未来冬小麦的产量是波动变化的。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变暖 WOFOST模型 冬小麦产量 |
Study of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Yield Using WOFOST |
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| Liu Jinlian,Hao Lingying,Qu Yifeng,Wu Yusheng,Jing Shuzhen,Guo Jifeng,Guo Jianmao,Hao Junping. Study of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Yield Using WOFOST[J]. Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly, 2010, 0(1): 25-28 |
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| Authors: | Liu Jinlian Hao Lingying Qu Yifeng Wu Yusheng Jing Shuzhen Guo Jifeng Guo Jianmao Hao Junping |
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| Affiliation: | Liu Jinlian Hao Lingying Qu Yifeng Wu Yusheng Jing Shuzhen Guo Jifeng Guo Jianmao Hao Junping ( 1.Yushe County Meteorology Bureau of Shanxi Province, Yushe, Shanxi, 031800; 2. Qixian County Meteorology Bureau of Shanxi Province, Qixian,Shanxi, 030700; 3 .Taigu County Meteorology Bureau of Shanxi Province, Taigu,Shanxi, 030800; 4. Jinzhong City Meteorology Bureau of Shanxi Province, Jinzhong,Shanxi, 030600; 5. Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology, Nanjing, Jiangshu, 210044 ) |
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| Abstract: | Global warming has become an indisputable fact. So it is important to make policy for winter wheat to adapt climate change that using the numerical model simulated winter wheat yield. WOFOST model was used in this article which was developed by Netherlands Wageningen University. WOFOST was verified based on the data in 2000-2001 in Taigu. It showed the model could be used in Taigu. The trend of temperature change was analyzed in Taigu. The meteorological background was established every lOa in 100years based on assuming that the temperature had rising trend and other meteorological elements was no different from 1985 to 2007. Based on these, it was simulated that climate change impacted on winter wheat yield. The results show that it was not sure that the temperature change impacted on winter wheat production and there was a fluctuation change on winter wheat yield. |
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| Keywords: | Climate warming WOFOST Winter wheat yield |
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