太阳风引起的地磁扰动的辨识建模

本文作为地磁扰动系统辨识研究系列的第３篇文章，首先对太阳风－磁层能量耦合进行分析，在此基础上总结和建立一个含有待定参数的物理模型．然后利用参数辨识方法，具体地确定这些参数和函数，从而得到一个完整而确定的数学物理模型，并对这一模型的实用性和可信度进行检验．另外，还选择１９７２年８月事件进行了一次预报实验，即根据太阳耀斑的观测，利用ＨＡ方法和文中得到的模型，分两步实现对地磁扰动的预报．

MODELLING RESEARCH FOR SOLAR WINDMAGNETOSPHERE COUPLING

As a major paper of the series researches for the system identufication of geomagnetic disturbances initiatedby the solar wind,here, the analysis of the solar wind-magnetospheric coupling was emphasized.Through this, a comprehensive model was obtained. Then the included parameters and the simple functions were determined by means of the system identification. This process is just the modelling which combined the physical analysis with identification method efficiently.The resulted model canbe used in quantitative prediction of geomagnetic disturbances.In addition, a numerical prediction process on the basis of solar flare observations is realized in terms of the HA method and the model.