大气环流的年代际变化 II.GCM数值模拟研究

类似大气环流模式比较计划（AMIP）的数值模拟，将实际观测的海表水温（SST）资料引入模式进行40多年的数值积分，得到长时间的大气环流模拟结果。分析数值模拟结果发现，无论是大气中的主要涛动和遥相关型，还是重要大气环流系统都极为清楚地存在着年代际变化特征，包括10～20年准周期振荡和可能的30年以上的准周期振荡；而且上述主要环流系统的形势及其年代际变化大都与实际观测资料所给出的结果相一致。顺便分析中国东部气候的模拟结果，年代际变化特征（包括60年代的气候突变）也很清楚，并同大气环流变化配合十分合理。结果也表明，同研究季节和年际变化一样，大气环流模式（AGCM）数值模拟也是研究大气环流和气候年代际变化的有效方法。

Inter-Decadal Variations of Atmospheric Circulation Part II: GCM Simulation Study

Similar to numerical simulations with atmospheric global circulation models (AGCM) in the Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Plan (AMIP), an atmospheric global circulation model is introduced to make 43 years integration by monthly observed sea surface temperatures from 1950 to 1993. We use the long-time series to discuss the inter-decadal variations of the atmospheric circulation, mainly focusing on the three key oscillations and principal circulation systems in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere, such as Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific-North Americal pattern (PAN), though in East Asia at 500 hPa. The results strikingly show that the inter-decadal variations, including 10-20 and more than 30 years quasi-periods oscillations are very clear. The simulation results agree with observations quite well. We also analyze the precipitation in the eastern China with the simulation data, and obtain the notable inter-decadal variations, including the climate jump in the 1960's. At the same time, the above features correspond with the variations of the atmospheric circulation in East Asia very well. Above all, we can use the GCM simulation data to investigate not only the seasonal and inter-annual variations of the amtospheric circulation and climate, but the inter-decadal virations as well.