Geodetic deformation vs. seismic strain deduced by historical earthquakes across the Alborz Mountains

Historical seismicity is used in order to map spatial distribution of seismic moment released by past earthquakes and to compare strain rate deduced from seismicity to those measured by geodetic GPS survey. Spatial analyses are performed on the seismicity of northern boundary of Central Iranian Block which coincides with the Alborz Mountains. This belt has been responsible for several catastrophic earthquakes in the past. In this study, the records of historical and instrumental earthquakes in the Alborz Mountains are used to calculate and plot geographical distribution of seismic moment released in time. A two-dimensional distribution function is proposed and used here to spread seismic moment along causative tectonic features. Using accumulated seismic moment, average slip rates across active faults are estimated for 32 sub-zones along the Alborz Mountains and western Kopet Dag. Seismic moment released by historical and recent earthquakes on this belt accounts for slip rate of 3–5 mm/year which is in good agreement with the geodetic vectors recently deduced from GPS survey in this region. The study also reveals geographical variations of slip rates along some 900 km length of this zone based on seismic history. The results are compared against finding from similar study in this region. Portions of Central and Eastern Alborz show lower seismic strain rate which could imply aseismic motion or overdue earthquakes. Completeness of historical earthquake catalogue and its reliability with regard to earthquake magnitudes, locations, and rupturing systems are among many plausible factors controlling the credibility of such results. Therefore, any conclusions derived from these results remain as reliable as the data and assumptions used for the analyses.