气候变化对延伸期预报的影响

10～30 d时效的延伸期预报，作为无缝隙预报预测体系中至关重要的一环，连接着天气预报和短期气候预测。受不断加剧的气候变化的影响，延伸期预报将面临更为重大的挑战。首先概述国内外延伸期预报现状，然后分析了全球气候变化对极端天气气候事件分布特征、关键环流系统可预报性等方面的影响，发现气候变化将导致延伸期预报难度加大、需求更加旺盛，同时也更加突显延伸期预报在防灾减灾方面的作用。进一步展望延伸期预报将面临的新挑战以及未来业务发展的新动向，提出了适应气候变化的应对措施和建议，如大力发展数值预报模式、深入开展延伸期预报机理研究、大力发展动力—统计相结合的预报方法以及尝试多学科交叉协作等。

Impact of climate change on extended range forecast

Climate change has a major impact on the global ecological environment and human production and living. The current forecast system has been and continues to be deeply affected by climate change, which will continue to be enhanced in the future. The extended range forecast is a vital part of seamless forecast system, linking to weather forecast and short-term climate prediction. What challenges will be faced? This study firstly review the status quo of extended range forecast and analyze the impact of climate change on operational extend range forecast. Then combining the increasing extreme weather events and the variability of predictability for certain atmospheric circulation modes caused by global warming, we explain the main challenges faced by operational extended forecast, and give some suggestions for countermeasures in adapting to climate change. Finally, this study looks forward to the new development of the recent extended forecast.