A new index of solar activity: An index of cosmic ray scintillation

An index of cosmic ray scintillation introduced previously is verified. This procedure has been performed within the scope of the long-term full-scale monitoring of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) in the real time regime. The 5-min data of the global network of high-latitude neutron monitors at Tixie Bay (Apatity) and Oulu (Finland) stations during the last four solar cycles (cycles 20–23), i.e., during the entire period of data registration with a high (5 min) resolution, have been used. The relationship between the amplitude-frequency-time structure of a precursor in the GCR scintillation index and the soliton-like structure of the heliospheric current sheet during the disturbed period has been established. This indicates that the precursor is of a coherent origin. Only the presence of a coherent process—quasi-week variation—makes it fundamentally possible to predict heliospheric storms. Finally, the justifiability of the effective prediction of heliospheric storms (～80%) has been obtained based on the long-term cosmic ray monitoring during cycle 23.