A new total volume model of debris flows with intermittent surges: based on the observations at Jiangjia Valley,southwest China

Debris flow with intermittent surges is a major natural hazard. Accurate estimation of the total volume of debris flow is a challenge for academic researchers and engineering practitioners. This paper has proposed a new model for the total volume estimation based on 15 years of observations in Jiangjia Valley, China, from 1987 to 2004. The model uses two input variables: debris flow moving time and average surge peak discharge. The Weibull distribution formula is adopted to describe the relationship between the debris flow surge peak discharge and its relative frequency. By integrating the Weibull function and two-point curve fitting, the relationship between the maximum discharge and average surge peak discharge can be established. The total debris flow volume is linked with the debris flow moving time and the average peak discharge. With statistical regression, the debris flow moving time is derived from the debris flow total time. The proposed model has fitted very well with the validation data and outperformed the existing models. This study has provided a new and more accurate way for estimating the total volume of debris flows with intermittent surges in engineering practice.