柴达木盆地枸杞霜冻灾害风险区划

基于气象灾害风险评估方法，利用1961-2017年5-9月柴达木盆地10个代表气象观测站点枸杞种植期发生霜冻灾害频次。结合自然地理和社会经济等数据，建立起致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个评价指标；采用加权综合评价法，权重赋值进行专家打分来确定，借助GIS空间分析技术，进行了柴达木盆地枸杞霜冻灾害风险评估和区划。结果表明：在柴达木盆地海拔高度在3200米以上，枸杞无法正常生长属于枸杞不可种植区；在冷湖、茫崖大部地区，格尔木南部、大柴旦、德令哈、乌兰以及都兰地区靠近山脉区域，枸杞生长期短，适合耕种的枸杞品种少，对枸杞生产经济效益影响较轻，属于低风险区；在诺木洪、格尔木西部和大柴旦东部地区，这一带多为戈壁，水资源缺乏，适宜种植枸杞面积相对有一定规模。对于霜冻灾害发生的影响程度不太严重，造成的经济损失不太大，属于次高风险区；在都兰经诺木洪至格尔木的小灶火一带，这里是柴达木盆地的枸杞主要种植区，该区域霜冻灾害发生对枸杞影响最大的区域，对枸杞生产产生的经济损失最大，属于高风险区。

Risk Division of Chinese wolfberry frost disaster in Qaidam Basin

Based on the risk assessment method of meteorological disasters, the frequency of frost disasters occurred during the planting period of medlar in 10 representative meteorological observation stations in qaidam basin from 1961 to may to September 2017 was used. Based on the data of natural geography and social economy, four evaluation indexes were established, including the risk of disaster factors, the sensitivity of disaster environment, the vulnerability of disaster bearing body and the ability of disaster prevention and reduction. With the help of GIS spatial analysis technology, the risk assessment and regionalization of Chinese wolfberry frost disaster in qaidam basin were carried out. The results showed that: in the qaidam basin, the altitude was above 3,200 meters. In cold lake, vast cliff large area, geermu south, big chai Dan, delingha, wulan and dulan area are close to mountain range area, lycium barbarum growing period is short, suitable for farming lycium barbarum species less, to lycium barbarum production economic benefit impact is relatively light, belong to low risk area; In nuomuhong, geermu west and eastern area of big chai Dan, this area is gobi mostly, water resource is short, appropriate area of planting medlar has certain scale relatively. The degree of frost damage is not too serious, the economic loss is not too big, belongs to the second high risk area; In dulan via nuomu hong to geermu small hearth fire area, here is the main planting area of medlar in the qaidam basin, the region frost disaster on medlar the biggest impact on the region, the production of medlar economic loss is the largest, belongs to the high risk area.