| 利用OSU/NCC模式进行我国汛期季度和年度短期气候预测的试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 高学杰 赵宗慈. 利用OSU/NCC模式进行我国汛期季度和年度短期气候预测的试验[J]. 应用气象学报, 2000, 11(2): 180-188 |
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| 作者姓名： | 高学杰 赵宗慈 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目! G1998040900，国家气候中心业务基金!项目 97-6yw-01资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 该文利用OSU/NCC全球大气环流模式耦合全球混合层海洋与海冰模式, 采用集合预报的方法, 对中国汛期降水进行了1982~1995年共14年的季度和年度综合性预报试验研究.结果表明:该模式对我国汛期降水具有一定的季度和年度预报能力, 而对部分地区有较强的预报能力.
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| 关 键 词： | 耦合模式 集合预报 汛期预测 季与年度预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 1998-12-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 1998-12-28 |
The Experiment of Extrasonal Prediction in China by OSU-NCC GCM for Flood Season |
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| Gao Xuejie Zhao Zongci. The Experiment of Extrasonal Prediction in China by OSU-NCC GCM for Flood Season[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2000, 11(2): 180-188 |
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| Authors: | Gao Xuejie Zhao Zongci |
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| Affiliation: | National Climate Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Using ensemble method, tests for seasonal and annual predictions of rainfall in China during the period of 1982 to 1995 are made by the atmospheric GCM/mixed layer ocean and ice model (denoted as OSU/NCC). Contrasts between forecasts and observations show that the model has certain ability in the prediction of precipitation for rainy season over China. It is also indicated that the prediction is especially acceptable in certain areas. |
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| Keywords: | Coupling model Ensemble prediction Prediction for flood season Seasonal and annual prediction |
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