特长隧道岩溶涌水量预测方法分析

由于岩溶区隧道穿越空间的复杂性、多变性和特殊性，加之地区差异性和水文循环系统的不确定性，各类预测方法均存在其自身的缺点，致使涌水量预测与实际存在一定差异。从水文机理和岩溶水的运动特征出发，结合岩溶区快速补给与慢速补给的差异与特征，采用水均衡法、地下水径流模数法和隧道涌水专家评判系统3种方法，对金奎地特长隧道岩溶涌水进行预测分析。结果显示，水均衡法计算结果值最大，径流模数法计算结果值最小，专家评判系统计算结果值在二者之间。经验证，专家评判系统更为精确，该方法强调次降雨对隧道岩溶涌水的作用，提高了隧道岩溶涌水量预测的精度。 

Forecast and analysis of karst water bursting disaster in extra-long tunnel

Due to complexity, variability and specificity of tunnel through a karst area, added by regional differences and the uncertainty of the hydrological cycle, all kinds of forecasting methods have their own shortcomings, resulting in some difference between the forecasted water inflow and the actual water inflow.The paper, by combining the differences and characteristics of rapid and slow water recharge in karst area and from the hydrogeological mechanism and characteristics of karst water movement, used three methods, i.e, water balance method, groundwater runoff modulus method and Expert's Judging System to predict and analyze karst water bursting in Jinkuidi extra-long tunnel.The water volume calculated by wtater balance method was the biggest, that calculated by runoff modulus was the smallest, and that given by the expert system was medium.Multual verification proved that the expert judging system was the most precise, the method emphasizes the effect of precipitation on karst water bursting in tunnel and increases the precision of karst water inflow prediction in tunnel.