Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China |
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Authors: | Fengmei Yao Yinglong Xu Erda Lin Masayuki Yokozawa Jiahua Zhang |
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Institution: | (1) College of Earth Sciences, The Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A, Yuquan Road, Beijing, 100049, China;(2) Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China;(3) National Institute for Agro-environmental Sciences, Tsukuba 305-8604, Japan;(4) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China |
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Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield using B2 climate change scenario from the Regional
Climate Model (RCM) and CERES-rice model during 2071--2090. Eight typical rice stations ranging in latitude, longitude, and
elevation that are located in the main rice ecological zones of China are selected for impact assessment. First, Crop Estimation
through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-rice model is validated using farm experiment data in selected stations.
The simulated results represent satisfactorily the trend of flowering duration and yields. The deviation of simulation within
± 10% of observed flowering duration and ± 15% of observed yield. Second, the errors of the outputs of RCM due to the difference
of topography between station point and grid point is corrected. The corrected output of the RCM used for simulating rice
flowering duration and yield is more reliable than the not corrected. Without CO2 direct effect on crop, the results from the assessment explore that B2 climate change scenario would have a negative impact
on rice yield at most rice stations and have little impacts at Fuzhou and Kunming. To find the change of inter-annual rice
yield, a preliminary assessment is made based on comparative cumulative probability at low and high yield and the coefficient
variable of yield between the B2 scenario and baseline. Without the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, the result indicates that frequency for low yield would increase and it reverses for high yield,
and the variance for rice yield would increase. It is concluded that high frequency at low yield and high variances of rice
yield could pose a threat to rice yield at most selected stations in the main rice areas of China. With the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, rice yield increase in all selected stations. |
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