中国海域及邻区地震时间分布特征研究

地震时间分布特征研究是进行地震预测和地震危险性分析的重要基础.以中国海域统一地震目录为基础资料,以指数分布模型、伽马分布模型、威布尔分布模型、对数正态分布模型以及布朗过程时间分布(BPT)模型为目标模型,采用极大似然法估算模型参数.根据赤池信息准则(AIC)、贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)以及K-S检验结果确定能够描述海域地...

Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Earthquakes in the China Sea and Adjacent Areas

The study of seismic time distribution is an important basis for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. In this paper, based on the unified China sea earthquake catalogue data, with Exponential distribution model, the Gamma distribution model, Weibull distribution model, the Logarithmic normal distribution model and Brownian passage time distribution (BPT) model for the target models, the maximum likelihood method is adopted to estimate the model parameters. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and K-S test results to determine the optimal model that can describe the temporal distribution of Marine earthquakes. The results show that for earthquakes with relatively small magnitude (M<6), the Exponential distribution, Gamma distribution and Weibull distribution can well describe the temporal distribution characteristics of earthquakes. Over a large area (e.g., the whole sea area), relatively large earthquakes (M>6) can be described entirely by exponential distribution. In smaller areas (seismic zones), large earthquake time intervals may be more consistent with lognormal and BPT distributions. In addition, the clustering and temporal correlation between earthquakes are also studied by diffusion entropy analysis method. The results show that seismic activity has long-term memory, and earthquakes with relatively small magnitude (M<6) are affected by larger earthquakes, thus showing the clustering characteristics in time. The results of this paper have important reference for the selection of seismic time distribution model and the calculation of seismic activity parameters in earthquake prediction and seismic hazard calculation, and have important scientific significance for understanding the mechanism of earthquake genesis.