Prediction of sunspot number amplitude and solar cycle length for cycles 24 and 25 |
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| Authors: | NR Rigozo MP Souza Echer H Evangelista DJR Nordemann E Echer |
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| Institution: | 1. Centro Regional Sul de Pesquisas Especiais (INPE/CRS), CEP 97105-970, Santa Maria, RS, Brazil;2. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Caixa Postal 515, CEP 12245-970, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;3. Laboratório de Radioecologia e Mudanças Globais / Departamento de Biofísica e Biometria da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, CEP 20550-013, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil;1. Leibniz-Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) at the University of Rostock, Schloßstr. 6, 18225 Kühlungsborn, Germany;2. School of Chemistry, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom;3. German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Institute of Physics of the Atmosphere, Münchner Str. 20, 82234 Wessling, Germany;4. Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), 203 Channel Hwy, Kingston, Tasmania 7050, Australia;1. Institute of Space Weather, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2. College of Physics & Optoelectronic Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;3. National Satellite Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;1. Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F. C.P. 04510, México;2. Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F. C.P. 04510, México;3. Centro de Investigación Cronómica, Escuela Nacional de Medicina y Homeopatía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, México D.F. C.P. 07320, México;1. Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, United States;2. Department of Computer Science, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, United States;3. AZH Wound and Vascular Center, Milwaukee, WI, United States;4. College of Nursing, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, United States |
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| Abstract: | The prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 24 and 25 is made on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral components. Monthly sunspot number data during the 1850–2007 interval (solar cycles 9–23) are decomposed into several levels and searched for periodicities by iterative regression in each level. For solar cycle 24, the peak is predicted in November 2013 with a sunspot number of 113.3. The cycle is expected to be weak, with a length of 133 mo (months) or 11.1 yr. The sunspot number maximum in cycle 25 is predicted to occur in April 2023 with a sunspot number 132.1 and a solar cycle length of 118 mo or 9.8 yr. Thus, solar cycle 24 is predicted to have an intensity 23% lower than cycle 23, and cycle 25 will be 5% lower than cycle 23. |
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