湖北省绿色发展指数空间格局及诊断分析

五大发展理念是破解发展难题、实现第二个百年奋斗目标的必然选择。其中绿色发展是可持续发展的必要条件。科学评价绿色发展,对指导区域可持续发展具有重大意义。本文在科学界定绿色发展概念的基础上,选取2009年-2015年湖北省相关统计年鉴数据,构建了系统层、因素层、指标层。其中因素层包含生态城市建设力度、产业环境友好程度、循环经济发展水平、科技创新水平四个方面;指标层包含建成区绿化覆盖率等19个指标。采用层次分析法与专家调查法相结合的方法确立权重,分析湖北省不同地级市绿色发展情况。研究结果表明：湖北省绿色发展水平指数在2011年有一个最低值;2009年至2015年呈现总体增加的趋势。在湖北省地级市绿色发展指数中,武汉市和宜昌市排名前列。神农架林区和恩施州尽管人均GDP较低,但是2015年绿色发展指数进入全省前五名。全局自相关分析表明2009年和2010年绿色发展指数在空间上呈现集聚分布,随后几年呈现空间随机分布模式。局部自相关表明,2015年武汉市绿色发展指数呈现“HH”极点模式。采用障碍度模型进行绿色发展指数诊断分析,表明制约湖北省区域绿色发展的指标因素主要是产业结构、工业废水排放强度、工业废气排放强度、生态环境状况指数等。基于上述结论,结合湖北省实际提出了倡导绿色理念,普及绿色发展知识、实现产业升级换代、大力发展循环经济等政策建议。

Spatial pattern analysis and diagnosis of green development index in Hubei Province

Five development philosophies are to solve development problems, to achieve the goal of the second century of the inevitable choice. Scientific evaluation of green development is of great significance in guiding regional sustainable development. On the basis of the scientific definition of the concept of green development, select 2009 - 2015 Hubei Province, the relevant statistical yearbook data constructed system layer, layer factor, index level. Factors which layer contains ecological urban construction efforts, industrial environment friendliness, circulating levels of economic development, technological innovation level four; index layer comprises 19 indicators green coverage and so on. Using AHP and expert survey method are combined to establish the weights, analysis of different districts Hubei Province green development. The results show that: Hubei green development index level has a minimum value in 2011; from 2009 to 2015 showing the overall increasing trend. Prefecture-level city in Hubei Province green development index, ranking the forefront of Wuhan and Yichang City. Enshi and Shennongjia despite relatively low per capita GDP, but by 2015, the green development index ranking in the top five. Global autocorrelation analysis shows that in 2009 and 2010 on the Green Development Index Space Show agglomeration distribution in subsequent years presented random spatial distribution patterns. Local autocorrelation show, Wuhan Green Development Index 2015 presents "HH" pole model. Obstacles Model analysis shows that green area index factors in Hubei Province mainly industrial structure, industrial wastewater emissions intensity, industrial emissions intensity, ecological environment index. Based on the above findings, combined with Hubei actual policy proposals to promote green ideas, green development popularize knowledge, to achieve industrial upgrading, vigorously develop the circular economy.