| 基于突变模型的泥石流危险度评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 安玉华,王清,张晨,赵传海. 基于突变模型的泥石流危险度评价[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2012, 0(Z1): 355-361 |
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| 作者姓名： | 安玉华 王清 张晨 赵传海 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林大学建设工程学院;吉林建筑工程学院;铁道部第三勘察设计院集团有限公司;长江三峡勘测研究院有限公司 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(40372122) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于突变理论模拟了乌东德地区泥石流的爆发。突变模型适于表达开放系统,假设危险度的影响因子是突变模型中的控制变量,利用初等突变模型对泥石流危险度进行多目标评估,根据当地的实际情况制定对应的评价标准。结果表明,模型在奇点处发生突变时泥石流爆发,该结果与传统的灰关联法计算结果基本一致,且与实际调查的情况较为吻合。
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| 关 键 词： | 突变模型 泥石流 危险度 |
Risk Degree Evaluation of Debris Flows Based on Catastrophic Theory |
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| An Yu-hua,Wang Qing,Zhang Chen,Zhao Chuan-hai. Risk Degree Evaluation of Debris Flows Based on Catastrophic Theory[J]. Journal of Jilin Unviersity:Earth Science Edition, 2012, 0(Z1): 355-361 |
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| Authors: | An Yu-hua Wang Qing Zhang Chen Zhao Chuan-hai |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Construction Engineering,Jilin University,Changchun 130026,China 2.Jilin Architectural and Civib Engineering Institute,Changchun 130117,China 3.The Third Railway Survey and Design Institute Group Limited Corporation,Tianjin 300142,China 4.Investigation of the Three Gorges Research Institute of Limited Corporation,Wuhan 430074,China |
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| Abstract: | The debris flows in Wudongde was simulated based on catastrophic theory.The catastrophic theory is suitabel for the expression of open system.The degree of risk of the debris flows was estimated using elementary catastrophe model with multiple objectives by assuming that the factors was the control variations.And the estimating criterion was confirmed according to the local circumstances.The result indicated that studied debris flow occured when the model appeared a muation in singular point,which was similar to the results of grey relational analysis,and both of the results were consist with the field investigation. |
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| Keywords: | catastrophe model debris degree of risk |
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