Remote effects of tropical storm Cristobal upon a cut-off cyclone over Europe in August 2002 |
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| Authors: | T Enomoto W Ohfuchi H Nakamura M A Shapiro |
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| Institution: | (1) Earth Simulator Center, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan;(2) Frontier Research Center for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan;(3) Office of Weather and Air Quality, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, USA;(4) Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan |
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| Abstract: | Summary In August 2002, many parts of central Europe were affected by heavy precipitation and flooding caused by a cut-off cyclone.
This study shows that this cyclone developed as a result of the propagation of a Rossby wave packet. The wave-packet propagation
along the relatively weak subtropical jet was accompanied by wave-breaking and re-emission in the subtropics. In particular,
there was an interaction between the Rossby wave packet and a precipitation band along the east coast of North America associated
with tropical storm Cristobal. This interaction had a significant influence upon the formation of the European cut-off low.
Results from numerical simulations from two different initial conditions are investigated to study this interaction. Downstream
influences from tropical storm Cristobal upon the development of this cyclone and associated flooding precipitation are confirmed
by sensitivity analysis using ensemble forecasts. It is concluded from analysis and simulations that poor forecast skills
of tropical storm Cristobal affected the predictability of the European cut-off low. |
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