欧盟第二承诺期减排目标初步分析

 欧盟提出了到2020年将温室气体排放在1990年水平上降低20%的目标，并提出了相应的政策措施。文章首先分析了1990-2005年欧盟减排成果，认为欧盟老成员国很难在第一承诺期内实现其在《京都议定书》之下的承诺。在这样的基础上提出进一步减排目标，必须有更严格的政策措施作保障，但现在的行动计划缺乏足够力量和信心。中东欧新成员国的加入有助于欧盟实现其第一承诺期目标，但随着经济发展的逐步恢复，这将给欧盟第二承诺期的减排目标带来挑战。

Feasibility Analysis of EU's Commitments for the Second Commitment Period

EU leaders have committed to cut greenhouse gas emission by at least 20% of 1990 levels by 2020, regardless of what action other countries take. Meanwhile, corresponding policies and measures are set. After analyzing EU's emission changes between 1990 and 2005, the paper believes that it is almost impossible for EU15 to fulfill their commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. More stringent policies and measures should be designed for the further reduction commitment. However, proposed measures are short of confidence. New members of EU might help EU meet its first commitment, nevertheless, they will bring more challenges against EU's commitments for post-Kyoto emission reduction targets, because their emissions might be rebounded along with the social and economic development in these countries.