Forecast of China’s grain production development and its self-support rate analysis

This paper discuses four stern difficulties and challenges faced by the development of grain production in China. According to the basic national conditions of China and the amount of grain resources in the world market, China must meet the grain demands mainly by her own domestic production. Using the input-occupancy-output techniques and system science methods, this paper makes a forecast about China’s grain output, grain import and self-support rate in the year 2030. The research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.