Are wildcat well outcomes dependent or independent? |
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| Authors: | Gordon M Kaufman P J Lee |
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| Institution: | 1. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 02139-4307, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
2. Institute of Sedimentary and Petroleum Geology, Geological Survey of Canada, 3303 33rd Street NW, T2L 2A7, Calgary, Canada
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| Abstract: | A binary logit model is adapted to the spatial point process represented by outcomes of wildcat wells as a function of drilling history. The probability of success of the (n+1)st wildcat is made dependent on the well's location and on outcomes of wildcats previously drilled within a distanced of the well. This simple model is a device for investigating patterns of dependencies of wildcat well outcomes and for projecting probabilities of drilling success at particular locations. The model is applied to two Canadian petroleum plays. |
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