A fault model of the 1946 Nankaido earthquake derived from tsunami data

A fault model of the 1946 Nankaido earthquake (M = 8.2) is determined by the use of tsunami records of Uwajima, Shimotsu and Hososhima which were located within or near the area of major coseismic crustal deformation. Synthetic tsunamis computed for various fault models are matched with the observed tsunamis to determine the fault parameters. A low-angle thrust model slightly revised from a previous model by Ando is consistent with the observed tsunamis. The duration of faulting is constrained as less than 10 min based upon the tsunami. The fault is divided into an eastern and a western segment corresponding to areas associated with and without aftershocks, respectively. The fault area and dislocation for the western segment are 150 × 70 km² and 6 m, and those for the eastern segment are 150 × 70 km² and 3 m, respectively. The total seismic moment is 4.7 × 10²⁸ dyn·cm, significantly smaller than that obtained from a geodetic model by Fitch and Scholz, but still larger than that of the seismic model by Kanamori. The discrepancy in seismic moment between the seismic and the present models (RAN2) could be interpreted in terms of a slow dislocation on the fault, but this interpretation does not match the seismic intensity distribution and damage pattern, and the slow-slip model for the Nankaido earthquake is rejected. The discrepancy between the two seismic moments is considered insignificant within error involved in data and modeling assumptions. If the revised geodetic model (RAN2) is modified, the seismic moment required to explain the observed tsunamis would be reduced further by ～30%. If we consider the uncertainties involved in the fault model of Kanamori and the fault-finiteness effect affecting the amplitude of seismic waves, the seismic moment required to interpret the seismic-wave data could be increased, possibly being more than twice that of Kanamori. Thus, the two seismic moments from the different data sets could be close to each other within allowable tolerance. This implies that the rise time of the Nankaido earthquake was short enough to generate short-period seismic waves from both the western and the eastern fault segments.