中国旅游经济对城市绿色发展的影响及空间溢出效应

在“生态优先、绿色发展”战略背景下,针对旅游经济绿色产业外部性及其空间溢出的科学认识缺乏,论证中国旅游经济能否促进绿色发展并揭示其空间溢出特征具有理论和现实意义。选取绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）作为城市绿色发展水平评价指标;融合多源数据并利用EBM-GML模型测算并分解中国284个地级以上城市2005—2016年GTFP;利用空间分析方法刻画地市尺度下GTFP时空格局及聚类情况;依托空间杜宾模型揭示旅游经济对绿色发展的影响及空间溢出效应。结果表明：① 东部、中部、西部、东北城市GTFP年度均值呈现总体上升态势,但“中部塌陷”特征明显;地市尺度中国GTFP格局与经济版图存在空间错位。② 旅游经济具有良好的绿色发展效应,能够同时促进绿色技术效率和绿色技术进步,进而驱动目的地本地GTFP增长。③ 旅游经济对GTFP存在不显著的正向空间溢出,但对绿色技术效率具有显著正向空间溢出。④ 政策上应加强区域内旅游经济联动发展,构建旅游目的地创新溢出机制,推动旅游目的地与邻地产业分工协同发展,打造旅游业深度参与的区域产业生态圈和综合体等,以期强化中国旅游经济对绿色技术进步的空间溢出。

The influence and spatial spillover effects of tourism economy on urban green development in China

Ecological priority and green development has become one of China's national strategies. Additionally, the scientific understanding of the green externality of tourism economy and its spatial spillover is still insufficient. Therefore, in terms of theoretical and practical significance, it is necessary to demonstrate whether China's tourism economy can promote green development and reveal its spatial spillover characteristics. On the basis of constructing the spatial spillover mechanism of green development effect of tourism economy, this paper selects green total factor productivity (GTFP) as the evaluation index of urban green development level based on bibliometric analysis; integrates multi-source data and uses EBM-GML model to calculate and decompose the GTFP of 284 cities at prefecture level in China from 2005 to 2016; uses the spatial analysis method to describe the spatio-temporal pattern and spatial clustering of GTFP at prefecture level. Based on the spatial Durbin model, this paper reveals the impact of tourism economy on green development and spatial spillover effect. The results show that: (1) the annual average of GTFP in eastern, central, western and northeastern China showed an overall upward trend. Eastern China has the largest improvement in GTFP (accumulated growth of 48.08%), followed by the western region (accumulated growth of 44.18%) and the northeastern region (accumulated growth of 36.05%), while the central region has the lowest improvement (accumulated growth of 26.56%), so that the "Central Collapse" feature is obvious. Moreover, there is a spatial dislocation between China's GTFP pattern and its economic map at the prefecture level. (2) The tourism economy could significantly promote the growth of local GTFP in tourist destinations by simultaneously promoting green efficiency change (GEC) and green technological change (GTC). (3) The spatial spillover mechanism of tourism economy on green development is reflected in the fact that tourism economy can significantly improve the GEC in neighboring cities, but it cannot significantly promote the GTC in neighboring cities. (4) In terms of policy, it is necessary to strengthen the linkage development of tourism economy within the region, and build an innovative spillover mechanism for tourism destinations. In addition, it is feasible to promote the coordinated development of tourism destinations and neighboring industries, and create a regional industrial ecosystem and complex with deep participation in the tourism industry.