中国儿童多维贫困时空格局变化及其影响因素

儿童是社会发展的未来,相对于具有劳动能力的成年人,儿童群体更易陷入严重的多维贫困状态,因此探讨儿童多维贫困的时空动态变化及其影响因素具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。以中国25个省、市、自治区为研究区,使用A-F法从住房、照料、教育、健康、营养维度对2010—2016年中国儿童多维贫困进行测度,并结合空间自相关、地理探测器等方法对其时空格局及影响因素进行研究。结果表明：① 2010—2016年中国东中西部儿童多维贫困指数均呈下降趋势,儿童多维贫困在住房、照料、教育、健康、营养各维度均得到有效改善;② 2010—2016年中国儿童多维贫困、各维度贫困存在空间分布差异,呈现“东—中—西”部儿童多维贫困指数阶梯式递增的空间特征;③ 2010—2016年中国城市、农村儿童多维贫困情况均得到改善,空间分布向着“东—中—西”贫困指数阶梯式递增的格局转变,但农村儿童多维贫困指数始终远高于城市;④ 家庭情况、城镇化水平是影响儿童多维贫困空间分异的重要因素,抚养能力、经济水平、教育环境是影响儿童多维贫困的次要因素。综合来看,各影响因素的交互作用对儿童多维贫困空间分异的影响远超过单因素,教育环境与抚养能力、城镇化水平与医疗资源、家庭情况与抚养能力为影响儿童多维贫困的主导交互因素。

Spatio-temporal pattern and its influencing factors of children multidimensional poverty in China

Global multidimensional poverty has arouse great attention from the public. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the spatial and temporal changes of multidimensional children poverty and its influencing factors. Taking 25 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) of China as an example, this study uses the A-F method to measure children multidimensional poverty of China during 2010-2016, and examines its spatio-temporal pattern and influencing factors with spatial autocorrelation and the geodetector. The results demonstrated the following: (1) During 2010-2016, the children multidimensional poverty index in eastern, central and western China showed a downward trend, and poverty in the dimensions of living standards, care, education and health were effectively improved. (2) The children multidimensional poverty index and each dimensional poverty index had spatial differences, which was manifested as "high in the east, medium in the central region, and low in the west". (3) Urban and rural children multidimensional poverty in China has been improved, and the index spatial pattern has gradually changed to "east, middle, west; high, middle, and low", however, the multidimensional poverty index of rural children has been far higher than that of urban children. (4) Family environment and urbanization level are important factors affecting children multidimensional poverty. Ability of raising children, economic level and educational environment are secondary factors. The interaction between the factors has a far greater impact on children multidimensional poverty than a single factor. Educational environment and ability of raising children, urbanization level and medical resources, and family environment are the main interactive factors leading to children multidimensional poverty.