中国人地关系的系统结构及2050年趋势模拟

人地关系是地理学的永恒研究主题,也是助推可持续发展理念落实的关键科学问题.基于系统理论,运用系统动力学方法,探究人地关系的内在结构及要素关联,进而构建人地系统模型,模拟在基础模式和调控模式2种发展情景下至2050年中国人地关系的发展趋势及核心特征.结果 表明:在以人口-经济-社会-资源-环境组成的现代人地系统中,存在4...

The Systematic Structure and Trend Simulation of China's Man-land Relationship Until 2050

Man-land relationship is the eternal research subject of geography and the key scientific issue to promote the implementation of sustainable development. Based on systematic thought, this paper applies system dynamic method that is good at dealing with complex interactive relations to explore the internal structure and element correlation of man-land relationships, and to construct man-land system model to simulate the development trend and core characteristics of China’s man-land relationship until the middle of this century under the two development scenarios, that is basic mode and regulatory mode. The results show that, in the contemporary man-land system composed of population, economy, society, resources and environment, there are four core positive and negative feedback loops, and the aforementioned five factors play different roles in the system, which can be summarized as: population is the main cause, economy is the promoting cause, resources are the foundation, environment is the representation, and society is the regulation. From 2017 to 2050, if the current man-land relationship mode is allowed to continue, the core resources and environmental factors will always be under high pressure, and the man-land system will face the risk of collapse. However, under the regulatory development mode bearing multiple policy intentions, although the core resource factors are still overloaded, the overall trend of the system is positive, and the man-land relationship will meet its inflection point. In the future, relevant policy regulation needs to continue to make more efforts in the gap between energy supply and demand, as well emission reduction targets.