基于地方化、城市化和全球化制造业空间集聚分析——以长三角区域为例

以制造业集聚指数作为测度指标，利用空间面板数据模型检验了地方化、城市化以及全球化要素对制造业整体集聚水平的具体影响。研究发现：① 长三角区域制造业高度集中在苏南?上海?杭（杭州）绍（绍兴）甬（宁波）组成的区域且地位稳固，同时苏北和浙西南地区的制造业虽然比例较低，但是总体地位有所提升。② 地方化要素中的职工工资和开发区变量对县域制造业集聚具有显著的正向作用，土地价格则呈现出显著的负向影响，市场规模和交通的作用不稳定。城市化要素中的城市规模、城镇化率、外来迁入人口以及城市制造业结构多样化均表现出显著的正向促进作用，表明了长三角区域城市化的推进促进了制造业集聚水平的提升。全球化表现出不同的作用方向，其中FDI对制造业集聚指数的影响显著为负，出口变量表现出显著的正向作用。

Dynamic Regional Manufacturing Agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta Region

This article proposes a theoretical framework composed of the effects of localization, urbanization and globalization to explain the evolution of regional manufacturing agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta region. Further, based on the micro firm-level data from industrial enterprise database in China, using regional manufacturing agglomeration index as a measure index, this paper first described the spatial characters of manufacturing at the county level in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2000 to 2013, and then using the panel data model to measure the effects of localization, urbanization and globalization on manufacturing industry agglomeration. The results are as follows. Firstly, the manufacturing industry is highly concentrated at the region of South Jiangsu, Shanghai and Hangzhou-Shaoxing-Ningbo and changes little over time, and the manufacturing industry status in the north of Jiangsu and south west of Zhejiang has been improved. Secondly, the variables of wage and industrial development zones have a significant positive effect on the manufacturing agglomeration, while the variable of land price has a significant negative effect, and the effect of market and transportation are inconclusive. The urbanization factors, such as city size, urbanization rate, migration and urban manufacturing diversification, all show significant positive promoting effects, indicating that the urbanization will promote the level of manufacturing agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta region. Globalization shows different directions, which FDI has a significant negative impact on the manufacturing agglomeration, and the variable of foreign capital is also negative, indicating that foreign investment is not conducive to the improvement of the manufacturing agglomeration level. Exports show a positive effect, but it is inconclusive.