黄河流域生态经济走廊绿色发展时空分异特征与影响因素识别

基于绿色发展科学内涵,综合构建了黄河流域绿色发展的评价指标体系,并采用熵值法、空间自相关分析、地理探测器模型等多种计量方法研究了2005—2017年黄河流域生态经济走廊绿色发展时空分异特征与驱动因素,结果如下：① 黄河流域绿色发展主要来源于规模化扩张与总量增长的外部驱动作用,热衷于发展速度与规模,忽视质量与效率的内涵式提升势必导致内生驱动作用不足与不可持续性;② 研究时限内黄河流域绿色发展低水平区不断减少,较高水平区稍有增加,但低水平与中低水平区占比长期稳定在65%以上,说明黄河流域绿色发展质量有待于进一步提升;③ 2005—2017年间黄河流域61地级市整体存在较为明显的空间依存关系,且绿色发展水平具有相对明显的空间俱乐部收敛特征,流域内两极分化现象较为明显;④ 经济发展水平、科学技术与政府调控始终是黄河流域绿色发展的高作用力影响因子,因子交互作用后对黄河流域绿色发展解释力远超单因子,反映出黄河流域绿色发展的驱动因素具有复杂性特征。

Spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of green development in the eco-economic corridor of the Yellow River Basin

Based on the scientific connotation of green development, a comprehensive evaluation index system for green development in the Yellow River Basin was constructed, and various measurement methods such as entropy method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and geographical detector model were used to study the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and the influencing factors of the green development in the eco-economic corridor of the Yellow River Basin. The results are obtained as follows: (1) The green development in the Yellow River Basin mainly originates from the external driving effects of large-scale expansion and the growth of total volume. Focusing only on pursuing the speed and scale of development but ignoring the connotative improvement of quality and efficiency will inevitably lead to the insufficiency of internal driving effects and unsustainability. (2) The number of areas with lower level of green development in the study area decreased continuously while that with a higher-level of green development rose slightly during the limited study period. However, the proportion of the numbers of areas with the lower level and medium-low level of green development remained above 65% for a long time, indicating that the level of green development needs further improvement. (3) From 2005 to 2017, the 61 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin generally showed relatively obvious spatial dependencies, and the green development level displayed a relatively obvious characteristic of spatial club convergence. The phenomenon of polarization in the study area was obvious. (4) The economic development level, science and technology level and government regulation are still the leading factors influencing the green development, and the explanatory power of interactions between factors for the green development far exceeds that of a single factor. This reflects the driving factors for green development in the Yellow River Basin are complex.