中国区域产业演化路径——基于技术关联性与技术复杂性的研究

论文基于技术关联性与技术复杂性划分出4类区域产业演化路径,利用2000—2016年中国海关进出口贸易数据库,集成不同类型新产业识别方法,在分析中国出口产业空间格局演变基础上重点研究了不同地区产业演化路径存在的差异及变化趋势。研究发现：① 中国出口产业经历了空间分散化过程。2000—2016年中国出口产业首先由粤闽地区向长三角核心城市和山东省等地转移,再向长三角外围城市、中西部省会城市和江西省等地转移。② 中国区域产业演化以路径依赖型为主,但发达地区有更强路径突破性。2000—2016年路径依赖型新产业占新产业总数的70%左右,路径突破型新产业占30%左右。中国东部沿海发达城市和中西部省会城市产业演化更具路径突破性,中西部普通地级市更具路径依赖性。③ 不论是路径依赖型产业分化还是路径突破型产业创生,新产业不必然具有更高技术复杂度。在路径依赖型新产业中,约一半的技术复杂度高于其在位母产业。在路径突破型新产业中,约2/3的技术复杂度高于城市平均水平。④ 不同地区产业演化路径存在较大差异,东部发达地区发展出更多路径突破型新产业,并且新产业技术复杂度高于城市平均水平;中西部普通地级市多充分利用现有知识与技术发展技术复杂度更低的新产业。从变化趋势来看,东部沿海地区路径突破且技术复杂度提高型新产业逐步增多,中西部普通地级市路径依赖且技术复杂度降低型新产业一直占有较高比重。因此,中国政府亟需制定政策推动中西部普通地级市产业发展的路径突破。

Regional industrial diversification of China:Based on technological relatedness and complexity

Using export data of the China Customs Database from 2000 to 2016 and methods measuring path-dependent and path-creation new industries and technological complexity of industries, this study analyzed the regional industrial development paths of China. Four types of regional industrial development paths were identified based on technological relatedness and technological complexity dimensions. The results show that, first, Chinese exports have an increasing trend in spatial dispersion, moving from the core cities of the Pearl River Delta to the core cities of the Yangtze River Delta and Shandong Province, and then to the peripheral areas of the Yangtze River Delta, the provincial capital cities of the central and western regions, and Jiangxi Province. Second, regional industrial diversification shows a high level of path dependence. From 2000 to 2016, path-dependent new industries accounted for about 70% of the total, while the figure for path-creation new industries was about 30%. Developed areas in coastal regions and capital cities in the central and western regions showed more path-creation characteristics. Third, in terms of path-dependent new industries, a half of them have a higher technological complexity than their parent incumbent industries. Regarding path-creation new industries, roughly two thirds of them have a higher technological complexity than their corresponding city average. Fourth, coastal regions have more path-creation new industries with a higher technological complexity, while the central and western regions have more path-dependent new industries with lower technological complexity. The results indicate that the Chinese government should take measures to promote the development of path-creation new industries with a higher technological complexity in the central and western regions.