粤港澳大湾区生态系统服务价值的时空演化及其影响机制

生态系统服务是生态要素、结构、功能和产品造福于人类社会的媒介和通道。根据生态系统服务价值（ESV）及其影响机制调节人类社会对生态系统的利用强度和保护方式,对于实现人地和谐的可持续发展目标具有重要意义。本文以粤港澳大湾区作为研究对象,依托遥感数据修订ESV核算结果,更加准确地揭示2000—2015年粤港澳大湾区ESV的时空演变特征,并引入面板分位数回归深入探索生态系统服务影响因素的分段效应,增加对生态系统服务影响机制的认识。结果显示：① 2000—2015年粤港澳大湾区ESV减速下降,下降区域主要分布在粤港澳大湾区中部和珠江入海口两岸等城市快速扩张区。② 在城市交界处,土地利用变化会带来更为强烈的ESV变化。③ 在ESV水平不同的区域,影响因素具有不同的影响效果。用地完整度仅在ESV的低值区可以促进生态系统服务能力提升。气温对生态系统服务能力的正向作用随ESV的提高而增强,经济密度对生态系统服务能力的负向作用随ESV的提高而减弱,二者均会导致ESV高值区与低值区间的差距增大,形成“自然马太效应”。

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing mechanism of ecosystem service value in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Ecosystem services are the media and channels through which ecological elements, structures, functions and products benefit human society. Regulating the utilization intensity and protection methods of the human society on the ecosystem according to the ecosystem service value (ESV) and its influencing mechanism is of great significance for achieving the sustainable development goals of harmony between man and land. This paper takes the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as the research object and revises the ESV accounting results based on remote sensing data to more accurately reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ESV in the GBA from 2000 to 2015. And, panel quantile regression is implemented to deeply probe the segmentation effects of the factors affecting ecosystem services and to increase the understanding of the influencing mechanism of ecosystem services. The main results are as follows: (1) In the GBA, the value of regulation services accounts for the highest proportion among the four ecosystem sub-services. From 2000 to 2015, the total ESV declined with a decreasing rate, and the values of leading ecosystem service and hydrologic regulation service had the similar variation trend. The decline areas were mainly distributed in the central part of the GBA and areas along the Pearl River Estuary. (2) Elastic index, indicating response of ESV to land use change, reached the peak (1.08) between 2010 and 2015. Changes in land use types per unit area induced greater ESV declines. The spatial distribution of elastic index showed that land use changes brought about more intense ESV variations at the junction of cities from 2000 to 2015. (3) In areas with different ESV levels, influencing factors have different effects. Land use integrity can only promote ecosystem service capabilities in low-ESV areas. The positive effect of temperature on ecosystem service capacity increase with the increase of ESV, which is self-reinforcement of ecosystem. Moreover, the negative effect of economic density on ecosystem service capacity decreases with the increase of ESV, which is self-protection of ecosystem. Combination of the self-reinforcement and self-protection will lead to the ESV gap between the high- and low-ESV areas, and induce the "natural Matthew effect".