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Mexico's drug networks: Modeling the smuggling routes towards the United States
Institution:1. Asian Studies Center, Michigan State University, 427 North Shaw Lane, Room 301, East Lansing, MI 48824, United States;2. James Madison College, Michigan State University, 842 Chestnut Road, East Lansing, MI 48824, United States;1. Department of Economics, Universidad de los Andes, Colombia;2. Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, United States;1. Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States;2. The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433, United States;1. Drug Policy Program, CIDE, Mexico;2. Drug Policy Program, CIDE-CONACYT, Mexico
Abstract:Drug smuggling routes are chosen to maximize profit while minimizing costs. Routes with the least drug transportation costs and the lowest risk for drug confiscation and gang fight are most preferred. This study attempts to predict the ground trafficking corridors for transporting marijuana and opium derivatives from Mexico to the United States border. The cost surface, representing impedance to transport illicit drugs, is modeled by considering physical, socio-demographic, and drug violence factors. The impedance is then transferred to the road network to represent the cost for moving drugs along the roads, which becomes the main input for network analysis. The results from the routes simulation confirm largely the known territory divisions and the drug trafficking routes of the major Mexican drug organizations. The findings help us understand the development of drug trafficking routes in Mexico, which can potentially enhance our capability to predict the dynamics of drug smuggling routes.
Keywords:Cost surface  Drug smuggling routes  Drug trafficking  Least-cost path  Mexico
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