广东省PRED系统动态及其地域差异初探

从 Ｐ Ｒ Ｅ Ｄ 系统的四子系统对系统的贡献相当的角度入手， 选用人口质量、人口数量， 耕地数量、人均粮食产量， 三废处理量、三废排放量， 人均 Ｇ Ｄ Ｐ、人均消费品零售额等指标， 以增长率为基础， 分析人口、资源、环境、经济四个子系统的动态变化趋势； 用等权平均方法分析 Ｐ Ｒ Ｅ Ｄ 系统整体动态。以广东省及其所辖２１ 个市为例进行研究， 认为广东省在１９８０ ～１９８５ ， １９８５ ～１９９０ ， １９９０ ～１９９６ 年三个时段内 Ｐ Ｒ Ｅ Ｄ 系统在整体上均趋于优化， 其人口系统优化趋势尤为明显， 但资源系统退化趋势也很突出； 从区内差异角度分析， １９９０ ～１９９６ 年间粤北、粤西、粤东 Ｐ Ｒ Ｅ Ｄ 系统趋于优化， 珠江三角洲虽然经济发展水平较高， 但在近６ 年内， 其资源、环境系统， 尤其是资源系统严重退化， Ｐ Ｒ Ｅ Ｄ 系统整体呈弱相对退化趋势。这进一步证明了广东省尤其是珠江三角洲经济的发展在近几年仍然以牺牲资源环境为代价的粗放型生产

AN ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMIC AND THE REGIONAL DIFFERENCY OF THE PRED SYSTEM IN GUANGONG PROVINCE

The tendency of the PRED system with its P,R,E,D subsystems in Guangdong Province since 1980 are analysed.Where 8 indexes are used:population quality,population quantity,the quantity of the cultivited land,per capita grain output,discharge rate of the wastes,treatment rate of the wastes, per capita GDP,per capita turnover of consumer good retail sales. The PRED system of Guangdong Province in the periods of 1980-1985,1985-1990 and 1990-1996 are studied.It is shown that the system as a whole tended to optimization,in which the P subsystem was improved the most,but the E subsystem was deteriorated from 1990 to 1996.The PRED system was improved in the northern,western and eastern parts of the province.In the Pearl River Delta region,although the D subsystem develope the fastest,the R and E subsystems were degraded,and in some degree the PRED system was deteriorated.That means the Pearl River Delta region paid high environmental price for its economic development.