系统动力学在县级经济发展总体规划中的应用

本文以福建省永定县为例，运用系统动力学方法，建立县级科技、经济、社会总体协调发展规划的“战略与策略实验室”。经实验选择出低、中、高３个发展方案及其所需的环境设定，以及一些决策分析结果，供决策者们参考。

APPLICATION OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS IN THE CENERAL PLANNING FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AT COUNTY'S LEVEL

he establishment of System Dynamics has made it possible for sociologists, strategists,and policpoaters to have tried out experiments in a laboratory like sciefitists do before a significant stratesital decision is made so that they are able to see the practical results in coming years, cornpare the differences among various plans, choose the mest satisfactory plan and abolish the unhealthy, even harmful ones. Taking Yongding County of Fujian Provice as an example, this paper tries to set up a strategical and tactical laboratory of planning for general coordinative development of science, technology, economics and society by using method of System Dynamics.Through experiments,three developing plans(low, middle and high) with the main environmental suppeitions needed for attaining the Soals and some results of decision analyses are chosen to give policymakers the powerful quantitative supports in making macroscopic development planning.