冷、暖冬预测与三麦等越冬作物防减灾对策研究

本文采用冬季负积温和冬季平均气温距平相结合的方法来确定冷暖冬年型分级指标；选用环流、海温等资料，建立了回归预报方程，并借鉴滤波的基本思想，研制了冬季负积温的海温因子和环流因子的分阶段滚动预报模式，该模式通过系数修正函数的运算，使得原为常量的预报因子系数变为变量，从而有效地提高预报精度，并在冷暖冬决策预报中起到了较大的作用。本文将天气预报、农业气象与农业生产相结合，研制了冷暖冬预测与三麦等越冬作物防减灾对策系统，近2a预报效果好。

THE FORECAST OF THE COLD AND WARM WINTER AND THE DISASTER COUNTERMEASURE STUDY ON SOME WINTERIZED CROPS

By using the method of the negative accumulative temperature and the average temperature in the winter,the classification grade index of the cold and warm winter type is given;by using circulation and sea temperature,the forecast pattern is established, the filter principle is used to develop the rolling forecast pattern.by operating coefficients modificatory function,the constant of forecast factor coefficients bacame the variable,so that forecast error decreases.In the text,combining the weather forecast,the agroclimatology and the agriculture,the system of the cold and warm winter and the disaster countermeasure system of some winterized crops lead to better foreacast effect in recent 2 years.