中国旅游投资水平的时空格局演变及驱动因素分析

利用空间自相关分析法和地理加权回归模型，对1999—2015年中国大陆31个省区旅游投资水平的时空格局演变及其驱动因素进行了分析。结果表明：旅游投资规模水平和投资效率水平提升很快，但区域差异显著，东部依然处于主导地位，中西部跟进速度快；旅游投资水平呈现出较强的空间负相关性，即旅游投资水平高的省区与低的省区在空间分布上表现为大杂居、小集聚的态势；同时旅游投资空间相关性在减弱，体现为各省区旅游投资水平的空间集聚度在不断下降，旅游投资逐渐趋于空间上的离散布局，即高水平与低水平省区呈现出空间分散性与异质性；各因素对旅游投资水平的影响存在空间异质性，其中，经济增长与金融发展是旅游投资水平最关键的驱动因素，且前者贡献度高于后者。

The spatio-temperal evolution of tourism investment level and its driving factors in China

Taking 31 provinces as the geographical observational units, this paper describes spatial-time differentiation features, influencing factors and mechanism of tourism investment from 1999 to 2015 by using ESDA and GWR analysis methods. The results are as follows:(1)During the period of investigation, the level of tourism investment scale and the investment efficiency rose rapidly, but the difference of regions are significant. The Eastern region remains dominant and the Central region and the Western region follow up rapidly.(2)The tourism investment level shows a strong spatial negative correlation, that is to say, the provinces with high-level of tourism investment and the provinces with lower-level of tourism investment show the situation of big mixed-race and small agglomeration in the spatial distribution.(3)The spatial correlation of tourism investment is weakening, which shows that the spatial concentration of tourism investment in various provinces is declining, the investment of tourism gradually tends to be scattered in space, in other words, the high-level and low-level provinces show the spatial distribution and heterogeneity.(4)The impact of various factors on tourism investment level is characterized by spatial heterogeneity. Among them, economic growth and financial development are the most crucial driver of tourism investment level, and the contribution of the former is higher than the latter.