中国省域能源消耗碳排放安全评价

碳排放安全评价和预测在应对全球气候变化、实现区域可持续发展方面有重要意义。根据1996-2012年统计数据,基于压力—响应模型,从经济、社会、环境3个层面构建省域能源消费碳排放安全评价指标体系,分析了中国能源消费碳排放安全的时空分异,并运用GM(1, 1)方法进行预测。结果表明：1996-2012年,中国碳排放安全综合指数在临界安全区间内呈现波动下降趋势。其中,压力系统指数与综合指数变化态势趋于一致,响应系统指数表现为上升趋势;多数省区处于临界安全状态,亚安全状态省区逐渐消失,安全等级差的省区出现南移现象;大部分省区压力系统恶化的同时响应系统好转;区域间碳排放安全差距逐渐缩小,高压力低响应的区域大量减少。预测发现,2020年全国大部分省区处于临界安全或以下状态,碳排放安全情况不容乐观。

Energy-related carbon emission security at the provincial level in China

Facing the great challenge of climate change, carbon emission security-an important part of ecological security-has become a prominent issue. This study used the 1996-2012 statistics of 30 provinces (except Tibet) of the Chinese mainland to analyze the spatial and temporal differences of energy-related carbon emission security, with the aim to provide some guidance for regional carbon emission reduction strategy and sustainable development. The assessment indicator system of energy consumption-related carbon emission security was based on the pressure-response model, which consists of three main aspects: economic, social, and environmental. Then carbon emission security situation was projected for 2013 to 2020 by using the GM (1,1) method. The results show that: from 1996 to 2012, energy consumption-related carbon emission security of China was at a critical level (0.45-0.65) and showed a downward trend since 2000. The response system played an increasingly more important role in the security state of energy-related carbon emissions; carbon emission security of various provinces is very different, its spatial pattern underwent some changes, and the provinces of low security level shifted southward; most provinces face more pressure while the situation of the response system has improved; disparity of regional CO2 emission security gradually narrowed, provinces of high pressure and low response reduced substantially; energy intensity, per capita disposable income of urban residents, proportion of coal, per capita carbon emission, proportion of the secondary industry have great influence on carbon emission security in the majority of provinces. The forecasting results show that carbon emission security situation is not optimistic. Most provinces will be in the critical and unsafe state with regard to carbon emission.