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??????????????????????????о????40????????????????????α估GPS????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????￡????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????顢???塢???????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????1??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????鵽????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????SOC??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????е?????????

ON BASIC STATE OF PRESENT-DAY CRUSTAL MOVEMENT DYNAMICS AND EARTHQUAKE PREDICTABILITY

Applying self-organized theory of complex dynamics system,we have synthetically studied the observational results of present-day crustal movement from contemporary geodesy(GPS and earthquake crustal deformation)in recent 40 years.Because of "fixed point attractor","limit cycle attractor","tons attractor" and "strange attractor" dominating the dynamics system,present-day crustal movement presents the various dynamics states such as "stable state(dynamic balancing state)","period state","quasi-period state","chaos state" and "edge of chaos".The observation results show that not only plate,block,boundary zone,fault zone but also speed field,stress field all over present the accordance of present-day crustal movement in several years or tens scales with those in neotectonics of million year scales as a whole.After transient state process(earthquake,etc)having occurred,present-day crustal movement(the changing process with time,the space distribution and the structure of spectrum)will return to "stable steady state(dynamic balancing state)" voluntarily.The observation results prove that the"fixed point attractor " exists really and it keeps the crustal movement system at "stable steady state"(dynamic balancing state),"self-organized stability".But Self-organized criticality(SOC)is a kind of weak chaos nature:"edge of chaos"(non-stable steady state),appearing only in the specific space-time region in specific stage at self organization process of crustal movement.