A methodological framework for rapidly assessing the impacts of climate risk on national-level food security through a vulnerability index

This article describes an experimental Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index showing the relative vulnerability of food insecure populations to climate risks at country level, as a tool for better understanding risks to food security presented by climate change. Data from socioeconomic and environmental indicators were analysed, and the most relevant indicators were aggregated using a composite index to compare differential vulnerabilities. The paper shows the high correlation between hunger and climate risk, especially for the regions of the world most affected by food insecurity. The analysis goes beyond the impact of climate on crop yields and provides a multidimensional analysis of vulnerability, while demonstrating the critical role that adaptive capacity has in determining vulnerability. The paper also presents a method for analysing food security vulnerability to climate risks that is replicable at different scales to provide a robust planning tool for policy makers. This approach can also be used to monitor vulnerability, evaluate potential effectiveness of programmes, and/or examine plausible impacts of climate change by introducing scenarios into the vulnerability model.