新冠肺炎疫情在广东省的扩散特征

基于广东省各地市卫健委官网披露的新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例的详细信息,对新冠病例在广东省的时空扩散特征以及各地级市疫情传播和变动的空间差异进行分析。研究结果表明:1)广东省确诊病例具有中年人最多、青年人其次、老年人第三的年龄结构特点,与全国统计特征较为相似。2)广东省的疫情扩散比率为0.198,表明其防疫措施卓有成效,有效地抑制了疫情的扩散。3)广东省的疫情扩散格局和综合风险格局存在显著差异。三四线中型城市的扩散风险较高但综合风险处于中等水平,发达城市的扩散风险较低但综合风险最高,粤东西部的欠发达地区较为安全。文章建议可积极宣传广东抗疫防疫成果,适度缓解民众焦虑,但仍需重点防范因返工返学带来的二次冲击。在防疫的中后期,应根据各地市的疫情风险等级,在省内科学划分风险防控区域,实施分级管控,有序恢复社会生产生活,避免过度防疫对社会民生造成的负面冲击,并需特别关注原本经济韧性较为脆弱的欠发达地区。

Diffusion Characteristics of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in Guangdong Province

This report analyzes the spatiotemporal spread characteristics and the spatial variation of the coronavirus epidemic based on detailed information of confirmed COVID-19 cases released by the city health commissions in Guangdong Province. The report finds that: 1) the confirmed cases in Guangdong Province maintain certain age distribution characteristics. Middle-aged people represented the largest number of cases, followed by young people, and lastly, the elderly. These results are similar to national statistics; 2) the epidemic spread ratio in Guangdong is 0.198, which indicates that the anti-epidemic measures in Guangdong have effectively suppressed the spread of the epidemic; 3) the difference between the epidemic spread pattern and comprehensive risk pattern in Guangdong Province is significant. Medium-sized cities （third and fourth tier） have higher diffusion risk and medium comprehensive risk. Developed cities have lower diffusion risk but higher comprehensive risks, whereas undeveloped areas in eastern and western Guangdong are safer. Medium-sized cities are apparently weak areas that can be easily overlooked in anti-epidemic work; therefore the control of such areas should be strengthened; 4) the results of Guangdong's epidemic prevention measures can be actively promoted in the future to reduce public anxiety. The current priority should be the prevention of a second epidemic shock caused by returning workers and school students. In the middle-late stages of epidemic prevention, the implementation of risk management should be differentiated according to the epidemic risk levels among different cities for the sake of restoring social production and avoiding the negative impacts towards society stemming from the over use of anti-epidemic measures, especially for vulnerable and underdeveloped areas.