城市新生代流动人口的回流意愿与区位选择——基于北京、深圳、成都和中山4个城市的实证

基于北京、深圳、成都和中山4个具有代表性的城市抽样调查监测数据,采用计量模型探讨了新生代流动人口的回流意愿与区位选择特征及影响因素。结果表明：1）新生代流动人口具有较强的回流意愿,且不同类型（智力型、投资型和劳力型）在回流意愿和区位选择上存在显著差异。2）其回流意愿受个体“客观属性”（人口学因素、经济因素）与“主观感知”（经济地位感知、社会心理感知）双重影响,特别是人口学因素和社会心理感知。3）就回流区位选择而言,人力资本是影响其回流至户籍地所在省会城市最显著的因素;主观感知中的城市社会适应、家庭“心理成本”和家乡生活方式认同与其选择回流至户籍地所在的地级市显著相关;客观属性中的人口学因素（性别和年龄）、在外务工时间主要影响其回流至户籍地所在的县（市、区）或乡镇;经济因素中的个人收入对各类回流地的选择均有显著的影响。不同回流区位的选择是综合“生存”与“发展”两方面需求的结果。建议未来精准施策,尤其要注意地级市的人口回流;在重视吸引人才的同时,要进一步关注流动人口的社会适应问题,完善公共服务设施尤其是医疗、养老、子女入学等,推进城镇化持续健康发展。

Profiles and Mechanisms of Return Migration in Post-Reform Urban China:A Case Study of Four Cities

With the deepening of urbanization, new-generation migrants are returning, leading to backflow population. Few studies have explored this emerging phenomenon in urban China. However, majority of the researchers have focused on return behavior based on the "pull–push forces" theory defined by national and urban macro-factors. Less attention has been paid to the individual factors that cause migrants’ return, e.g., social ties and capital, perceived discrimination and exclusion, social integration, and place attachment. To fill this gap, this study examines the determinants of the new-generation migrants’ return intentions and location choices based on the following two micro-level aspects: "objective attributes" and "subjective perceptions." Using the data collected from the 2014 National Floating Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey and binary and multiple nominal logistic regression models, this study focused on three types of new-generation migrants(born after1980): skilled migrants, business migrants, and labor migrants in four cities(Beijing, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Zhongshan). The results can be given as follows. 1) New-generation migrants in urban China exhibited a strong intention to return, and their location choices differed based on their types. Further, 40% of migrants returned to their household region. Labor migrants exhibited the strongest intention(43.7%), followed by business migrants(36.0%) and skilled migrants(27.9%). Proportionately more skilled migrants planned to return to provincial capitals or prefectural cities when compared with the other two cohorts. 2) Binary logistic models identified return determinants;new-generation migrants’ returning intentions were influenced by both the "objective attributes"(demographical and economic condition) and "subjective perceptions"(economic position perception and sociopsychological perception). Males exhibited a greater probability of returning when compared with that exhibited by females. Age, education level, monthly income, and years of leaving hometowns were negatively related with the migrants’ return intentions. Long working hours per day contributed to their return. No evidence has shown that the marital status, number of children under the age of 18, or contract form were significantly related. As for the subjective factors, migrants with high family-related mental burdens and strong native cultural identification were increasingly likely to return. Strong social acculturation caused new-generation migrants to settle down in their destination cities. Importantly, there was no direct link between the migrants’ return intentions and perception of economic position. 3) Regarding determinants in local choices, education level was the most significant factor associated with migrants’ backflow to provincial capitals. Sociopsychological perceptions strongly influenced their backflow to prefectural cities. Demographic factors, such as gender, age, and years of leaving hometowns, exhibited a close relation with returning to counties or townships. Notably, migrants with high monthly incomes exhibited a greater probability of returning to urban settlements when compared with rural areas. This study confirmed that individual factors, particularly sociopsychological perceptions, have an important effect on the new-generation migrants’ return behaviors in urban China. Therefore, we initially call for the government to articulate the significance of social acculturation and integration, targeting the new-generation migrants to avoid "reverse culture shock" in backflow settlements, notably in prefectural cities. Second, the improvement of public services, such as medical care, pension, and children enrollment opportunities, as well as favorable policies and practices should be considered in urban development and planning and established to relieve the migrants’ family burden.