Prediction and management of extreme events based on a simple probabalistic model of the first-passage boundary |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queens Road, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK;2. Dipartimento di Scienze, Università degli Studi Roma Tre, L.go San Leonardo Murialdo 1, 00146 Rome, Italy;3. Institut für Mineralogie, GZG, Universität Göttingen, Goldschmidtstr. 1, Göttingen, Germany;4. Department of Physics and Geology, University of Perugia, via Alessandro Pascoli, 06123 Perugia, Italy;1. Laboratory of Organic Geochemistry (LOG), Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Tokyo 183-8509, Japan;2. Wageningen Marine Research, Ankerpark 27, 1781 AG Den Helder, the Netherlands;3. Division of Avian Conservation, Yamashina Institute for Ornithology, Konoyama 115, Abiko, Chiba 270-1145, Japan |
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| Abstract: | Analogy between the transitions of a dynamical system to the position where system characteristics are anomalous and the process of time-first passage of boundary for a stochastic trajectory is used for the development of quantitative risk-analysis of natural extreme events. The highly-effective method for calculating the probability, mean time and its dispersion for such a transition has been obtained in the Markovian diffusion approximation. The general theory is illustrated by the study of the risk analysis of radioecological disaster in the Kara Sea. |
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