A gravitational-tidal mechanism for the Earth’s polar oscillations

Perturbed, rotational-oscillational motions of the Earth induced by the gravitational torques exerted by the Sun and Moon are studied using a linear mechanical model for a viscoelastic rigid body. A tidal mechanism is identified for the excitation of polar oscillations, i.e., for oscillations of the angular-velocity vector specified in a fixed coordinate frame, attributed to the rotational-progressive motion of the barycenter of the Earth-Moon “binary planet” about the Sun. The main features of the oscillations remain stable and do not change considerably over time intervals significantly exceeding the precessional period of the Earth’s axis. A simple mathematical model containing two frequencies, namely, the Chandler and annual frequencies, is constructed using the methods of celestial mechanics. This model is adequate to the astrometric measurements performed by the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS). The parameters of the model are identified via least-squares fitting and a spectral analysis of the IERS data. Statistically valid interpolations of the data for time intervals covering from several months to 15–20 yr are obtained. High-accuracy forecasting of the polar motions for 0.5–1 yr and reasonably trustworthy forecasting for 1–3 yr demonstrated by observations over the last few years are presented for the first time. The results obtained are of theoretical interest for dynamical astronomy, geodynamics, and celestial mechanics, and are also important for astrometrical, navigational, and geophysical applications.